Anticipating Consequences

Deliberately looking ahead by asking 'what if?' of an intended course of action.

Left to their own devices, most people aren't in the habit of looking ahead and anticipating the consequences tomorrow of an action taken today. There are numerous examples of this. The 'M25 effect', for example, where the consequences of building the orbital motorway around London were not anticipated, ie that its very existence would create extra traffic. Or the effect of teaching children to swim in swimming pools. Apparently this increases their confidence with the consequence that more drown in rivers and the sea where conditions are quite different from those encountered in indoor pools. Or, to give one more example, the effect of improved health care and increased longevity on government expenditure; nearly half the social services budget goes on benefit expenditure to the elderly, and it's rising.

Helping people to think ahead and anticipate the consequences of their behaviour provides them with a learning opportunity which is often salutary. For a start it weans them off short-termism, quick fixes and the tendency to go for immediate gratification. Secondly, it forces them to think things through before taking action. Thirdly, it makes it easier to learn from a comparison of the consequences that were anticipated and the ones that actually occurred. Last, but not least, the whole exercise will often mean that an intended action is significantly modified, or even abandoned, once likely consequences have been identified.

So, a bit of crystal ball gazing never did anyone any harm and, especially for people who tend to be gung ho, developing the habit of looking ahead is very useful.

There are two simple ways to get people to anticipate consequences. One is to keep asking, 'if we do this, what do you think the consequences will be?' Asking the question acts as a trigger for forward thinking and, who knows, if you keep asking the question people might start to anticipate it.

Secondly, you can invite people to take part in 'what if-ing?' exercises. What if interest rates fall/increase? What if there is a power failure? What if there is a fire? What if such and such a person leaves? What if our competitors cut their prices? What if there is global warming?

Any circumstance, large or small, can be 'what if-ed' with the double advantage of having contingencies worked out just in case, and having forced people to practise looking ahead and anticipating consequences.